The Predictability of Cane Production in the South African Sugar Industry Using Seasonal Climate Outlooks and the Canesim Yield Forecasting System

Timely and accurate yield forecasts prior to and during the milling season present opportunities to improve various industry activities, such as milling operations, international trade and agronomic optimisation. The Canesim model-based yield forecasting system was used to quantify prediction skills at different times of the year, using historic climate data and a history of seasonal climate outlooks from the South African Weather Services. Yield prediction skill was low in September prior to the milling season (11%), but increased significantly towards March (36-43%). Some results showed that predictions in irrigated areas can still be improved significantly. Prediction skills were improved by 2% to 12% when seasonal climate outlooks issued at the beginning of the year (January to May) were used. Results also suggest that some mills may benefit more than others from climate outlooks.